Probability and mathematics play a big role in card games. Strong players use odds to determine the optimal action that will yield the maximum long term excepted value (EV). Knowing the odds associated with the various outcomes of a hand is important in making correct decisions when playing. Conversely, knowing the odds your opponents have to outdraw your hand, helps you size your bets correctly to ensure they would be making a mistake by continuing.
Knowledge of these statistics is the key to winning over the long term. By knowing the mathematics behind the correct decisions, you can consistently make sure that you are a favourite when the money goes into the pot. In online games especially with very few (if any) tells, statistical knowledge becomes the main factor when choosing whether to bet, call, or fold.
Here are some terms that you'll hear on this site and whenever you're talking about poker odds:
Outs The number of cards left in the deck that will improve your hand.
"I had four hearts on the turn, so I had only 9 outs left to complete that flush."
Pot Odds The odds you get when analysing the current size of the pot vs. your next call.
"There's $200 already in the pot, and only another $10 bet coming at me The pot is now laying me 20:1 on the $10 I need to pay to continue. The odds of improving my hand by hitting my flush with 1 card to come is 3:1 giving me great value and making a call easy.
Implied Odds The odds you are getting after the assumed result of betting for the remainder of the hand.
"My opponent has a lot of money left to bet on the turn and the river. If I can hit my hand he is likely to pay me off with the rest of his stack, giving me great implied odds on this initial call’.
By working out how many Outs you have in any given hand, you can then evaluate what your odds are of improving. You can use our odds chart to do this quickly. You will find that after doing this several times, you learn what your odds are in specific situations as they often appear time and time again.
A quick way to calculate your approximate odds is as follows:
Multiply the number of outs you have by 2 and add 1 to get your odds for hitting with card to come. For example if you have a flush draw with 9 outs you would double 9 to get 18 and add 1 to get 19%. From our chart you can see that the odds of hitting in this situation are 19.6%.
With 2 cards to come, multiply the number of outs by 4. For example if you have 5 outs on the flop, your odds of hitting one of them by the river is 20%. Our chart says 20.3% so as you can see this method is excellent for getting a rough estimate, even though in some situations it may be a few points off.
Pot odds refer to the price the pot is laying you to continue in the hand. For example if there is $100 in the pot and you have $10 to call, if you want to continue then you are being offered pot odds of 10-1 because you need to call $10 to win $100.
Implied odds are an important concept when playing No Limit because you will usually have deep stacks making it profitable to draw. This is because you need to account for the fact that if you hit, you may win a lot more than what is in the pot at that moment. This makes pot odds a little less important that the implied odds you are getting. An example would be when you have a gut shot straight draw (4 outs) to the nuts and there is currently $10 in the pot. Now we know that with 4 outs, we will improve roughly 9% of the time, meaning we need about 10.5-1 pot odds to continue with 1 card to come. If our opponent bets $3 into the pot, we are not getting the right price to call based solely on pot odds. However, if you both have $200 left in your stacks and you are confident that he will put in a lot more money if you hit, then implied odds dictate that making a $3 call there for a chance to win a lot more is profitable.
Reverse implied odds
Reverse implied odds works the same way as implied odds and deals with thinking about what you stand to lose by playing a certain hand. Implied odds deals with what you stand to win if you hit, whereas, reverse implied odds, you consider what you will lose if you hit. A good example is playing a hand like AT after a tight player has raised before you. If you hit your Ace you will need to call some bets but you risk being dominated by a better Ace a lot of the time. These types of dominated hands are referred to a reverse implied odds hands because they often have the potential to lose you a big pot with little chance to win a big pot.
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